Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 51%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion51%50%0
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Manchester United25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 64% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- May 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
- May 9 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- May 2 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
- Apr 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
Manchester United
WinWinWinDrawWin
- May 17 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-2
- May 9 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
- May 3 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Apr 27 · v Brentford (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Manchester United form·Head-to-head record