Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 1 · 14:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 40%
A 38% away win. The market says 27%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion40%45%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest38%27%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 56% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 73% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 62% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Feb 21 · at Brentford (A)2-0
- Feb 14 · at Liverpool (A)0-3
- Feb 11 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
- Feb 8 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-1
- Jan 31 · v Everton (H)1-1
Nottingham Forest
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Feb 26 · v Fenerbahçe (H)1-2
- Feb 22 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Feb 19 · at Fenerbahçe (A)3-0
- Feb 11 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)0-0
- Feb 6 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Nottingham Forest form·Head-to-head record