Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 15:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion58%57%0
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Sunderland20%18%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 76% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Dec 13 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
- Dec 7 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Dec 3 · v Aston Villa (H)3-4
- Nov 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Brentford (H)2-1
Sunderland
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 14 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)3-2
- Nov 22 · at Fulham (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Sunderland form·Head-to-head record