Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 18:30 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Tromsø IL
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 57%
A 21% away win. The market says 6%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion57%82%−24
OursMarket
Draw21%12%+9
OursMarket
Tromsø IL21%6%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 70% | −35 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 94% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 18% | +24 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 88% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 93% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 23 · v Aston Villa (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · at Tromsø IL (A)0-0
- May 24 · v Manchester United (H)0-3
- May 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
- May 9 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
Tromsø IL
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 20 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Molde FK (A)2-3
- Aug 13 · v CFR 1907 Cluj (H)2-1
- Aug 6 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)5-0
- Aug 2 · at Aalesunds FK (A)6-2
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Tromsø IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.