Premier League (England) · Sat, May 9 · 14:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 67%
We make it 71% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 64%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion67%75%−8
OursMarket
Draw19%15%+3
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers14%9%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 64% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 91% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 25% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 85% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 89% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- May 2 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
- Apr 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Liverpool (H)2-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- May 2 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Leeds United (A)0-3
- Apr 10 · at West Ham United (A)0-4
- Mar 16 · at Brentford (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.