PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:30 · Brinje Grosuplje vs NK Maribor
Likeliest: NK Maribor win · 58%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brinje Grosuplje16%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
NK Maribor58%55%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brinje Grosuplje
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · v Kalcer Radomlje (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · v NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at NK Olimpija Ljubljana (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v NK Celje (H)4-1
- Aug 21 · at NK Aluminij Kidričevo (A)2-4
NK Maribor
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v NK Aluminij Kidričevo (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Kalcer Radomlje (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v NŠ Mura (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at NK Nafta Lendava 1903 (A)3-2
- Aug 23 · v NK Bravo (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Brinje Grosuplje | NK Maribor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 2-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.