A-League Men (Australia) · Fri, Oct 23 · 09:00 · Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
Likeliest: Brisbane Roar win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brisbane Roar45%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Perth Glory28%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brisbane Roar
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Apr 25 · at Perth Glory (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Melbourne City (H)2-3
- Apr 10 · at Central Coast Mariners (A)2-2
- Apr 2 · v Sydney (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · v Wellington Phoenix (H)1-2
Perth Glory
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Macarthur FC (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Brisbane Roar (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Sydney (A)0-0
- Apr 12 · v Macarthur (H)3-1
- Apr 4 · at Central Coast Mariners (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Brisbane Roar | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.