Championship (England) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:45 · Bristol City vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 51% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Watford (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Southampton (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Burnley (A)2-1
Blackburn Rovers
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v Cardiff City (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Portsmouth (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Millwall (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Preston North End (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.