Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 7 · 15:00 · Bristol City vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 44%
A 34% home win. The market says 27%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City34%27%+6
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Coventry City44%47%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 55% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 73% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 37% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Feb 27 · v Watford (H)1-2
- Feb 24 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Feb 17 · v Wrexham (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Hull City (A)3-2
Coventry City
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Feb 28 · v Stoke City (H)2-1
- Feb 25 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-0
- Feb 16 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.