Championship (England) · Fri, Jan 30 · 20:00 · Bristol City vs Derby County
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 45%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City45%46%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Derby County29%25%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 65% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Jan 24 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
- Jan 20 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · at Oxford United (A)0-0
- Jan 10 · v Watford (H)5-1
- Jan 4 · v Preston North End (H)0-2
Derby County
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Jan 23 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Jan 20 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
- Jan 11 · v Leeds United (H)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Wrexham (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.