Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 15:00 · Bristol City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City36%35%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Middlesbrough38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 48% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Dec 13 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · v Leicester City (H)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Millwall (H)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
- Nov 26 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
Middlesbrough
LossWinWinWinWin
- Dec 13 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-1
- Dec 9 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Dec 5 · at Hull City (A)4-1
- Nov 29 · v Derby County (H)2-1
- Nov 25 · v Coventry City (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.