Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · Bristol City vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 38%
A 38% away win. The market says 27%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City35%44%−9
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Millwall38%27%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 73% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 62% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Nov 29 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
- Nov 26 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Nov 22 · v Swansea City (H)3-0
- Nov 7 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Nov 4 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-1
Millwall
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Nov 29 · v Southampton (H)3-2
- Nov 26 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at Portsmouth (A)1-3
- Nov 8 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Nov 4 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.