Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:00 · Bristol City vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City33%37%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Millwall38%34%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 49% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 52% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Aug 6 · v Walsall (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 25 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · at Southampton (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Norwich City (H)2-4
Millwall
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Aug 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-1
- May 11 · v Hull City (H)0-2
- May 8 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- May 2 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Apr 24 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.