Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 18 · 14:00 · Bristol City vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 35%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City46%35%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Norwich City30%37%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 65% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 49% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Apr 11 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
- Apr 3 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-1
Norwich City
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Apr 11 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Apr 6 · at Millwall (A)2-1
- Apr 3 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-0
- Mar 18 · at Southampton (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.