Championship (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 15:00 · Bristol City vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 53%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City53%55%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Portsmouth25%20%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 29 · at Millwall (A)1-2
- Dec 26 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · v Leicester City (H)2-2
Portsmouth
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Dec 29 · v Charlton Athletic (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.