Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Bristol City vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 44%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City51%44%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−1
OursMarket
Portsmouth23%28%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 45% | +21 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 56% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 61% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Aug 22 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Aug 6 · v Walsall (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 25 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
Portsmouth
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 22 · at Lincoln City (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
- Aug 8 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
- May 2 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.