Championship (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 · Bristol City vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 49%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Preston North End27%24%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 47% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 76% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 68% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossWinWinLossWin
- Jan 1 · v Portsmouth (H)5-0
- Dec 29 · at Millwall (A)1-2
- Dec 26 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
Preston North End
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Jan 1 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-0
- Dec 29 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
- Dec 26 · at Stoke City (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Norwich City (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Oxford United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bristol City form·Preston North End form·Head-to-head record