Championship (England) · Mon, Apr 6 · 14:00 · Bristol City vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 38%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City38%33%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Sheffield United36%40%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 46% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Apr 3 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · at Leicester City (A)0-2
- Mar 7 · v Coventry City (H)0-2
Sheffield United
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Apr 3 · v Swansea City (H)3-3
- Mar 21 · v Wrexham (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Mar 11 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Mar 7 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.