Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Bristol City vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Sheffield United28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Watford (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Southampton (A)1-4
Sheffield United
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · at Portsmouth (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Lincoln City (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.