Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Bristol City vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 53%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City53%48%+5
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Stoke City22%27%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 62% | −16 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 64% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · at Southampton (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Norwich City (H)2-4
- Apr 11 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
Stoke City
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 25 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Apr 21 · v Millwall (H)1-3
- Apr 18 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-1
- Apr 6 · at Derby County (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.