Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 12:30 · Bristol City vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 42%
A 31% away win. The market says 24%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City42%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Swansea City31%24%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 66% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Nov 7 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Nov 4 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-1
- Nov 1 · at Stoke City (A)1-5
- Oct 25 · v Birmingham City (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Southampton (H)3-1
Swansea City
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Nov 8 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-4
- Nov 5 · at Preston North End (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-1
- Oct 29 · v Manchester City (H)1-3
- Oct 25 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.