EFL Cup (England) · Thu, Aug 6 · 18:45 · Bristol City vs Walsall
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 57%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City57%68%−11
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Walsall21%13%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 58% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 87% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 32% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 84% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- May 2 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 25 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · at Southampton (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Norwich City (H)2-4
- Apr 11 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
Walsall
LossLossWinLossLoss
- May 2 · at Bromley (A)1-3
- Apr 25 · v Harrogate Town (H)0-2
- Apr 18 · at Barrow (A)3-1
- Apr 11 · v Cheltenham Town (H)0-4
- Apr 6 · at Swindon Town (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.