FA Cup (England) · Sat, Jan 10 · 17:45 · Bristol City vs Watford
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City42%41%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Watford32%31%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Jan 4 · v Preston North End (H)0-2
- Jan 1 · v Portsmouth (H)5-0
- Dec 29 · at Millwall (A)1-2
- Dec 26 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-0
Watford
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Jan 1 · v Birmingham City (H)3-0
- Dec 29 · at Norwich City (A)1-0
- Dec 26 · at Leicester City (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v Stoke City (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Wrexham (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.