Championship (England) · Fri, Feb 27 · 20:00 · Bristol City vs Watford
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 40%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City40%38%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Watford35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 53% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Feb 24 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Feb 17 · v Wrexham (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Hull City (A)3-2
- Jan 30 · v Derby County (H)0-5
Watford
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 24 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Feb 21 · v Derby County (H)2-0
- Feb 14 · at Preston North End (A)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Feb 3 · at Hull City (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.