Championship (England) · Fri, Sep 18 · 19:00 · Bristol City vs Watford
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw27%27%+1
OursMarket
Watford23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 15 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Southampton (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Burnley (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Portsmouth (H)2-1
Watford
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v Stoke City (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Swansea City (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.