Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 15:00 · Bristol City vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 40%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol City40%35%+6
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion35%36%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 46% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 65% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 49% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol City
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 14 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · at Leicester City (A)0-2
- Mar 7 · v Coventry City (H)0-2
- Feb 27 · v Watford (H)1-2
- Feb 24 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
West Bromwich Albion
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 14 · v Hull City (H)3-0
- Mar 11 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Sheffield United (A)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Oxford United (A)1-2
- Feb 24 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol City | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Bristol City form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record