League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Bristol Rovers vs Barnet
Likeliest: Bristol Rovers win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol Rovers42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Barnet31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol Rovers
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 6 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-4
- Oct 3 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Gillingham (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-2
Barnet
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 6 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Fleetwood Town (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Accrington Stanley (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Chesterfield (A)3-3
- Sep 1 · at Exeter City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol Rovers | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.