League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Bristol Rovers vs Salford City
Likeliest: Bristol Rovers win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol Rovers37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Salford City33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol Rovers
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Barnet (H)1-3
- Oct 6 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-4
- Oct 3 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
Salford City
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Crawley Town (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Cheltenham Town (A)2-0
- Oct 6 · at Accrington Stanley (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Oldham Athletic (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Bristol Rovers | Salford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.