League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town
Likeliest: Bristol Rovers win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bristol Rovers58%59%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Swindon Town17%18%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 41% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bristol Rovers
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Barnet (H)1-3
- Oct 6 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-4
- Oct 3 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
Swindon Town
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Walsall (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Rochdale (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Accrington Stanley (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newport County (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Bristol Rovers | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.