Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00 · Brøndby IF vs FC København
Likeliest: FC København win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brøndby IF27%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC København46%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brøndby IF
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 17 · at Vejle (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-4
- Sep 6 · v Randers FC (H)0-3
- Aug 30 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)1-3
- Aug 24 · v Silkeborg IF (H)3-1
FC København
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 15 · at Skovshoved (A)3-0
- Sep 11 · v AC Horsens (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Odense Boldklub (A)5-0
- Sep 3 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Brøndby IF | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.