Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:00 · Brøndby IF vs Lyngby
Likeliest: Brøndby IF win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brøndby IF52%55%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Lyngby23%23%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 71% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brøndby IF
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v FC København (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Vejle (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-4
- Sep 6 · v Randers FC (H)0-3
- Aug 30 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)1-3
Lyngby
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · v Silkeborg IF (H)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at Viborg FF (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · v Odense Boldklub (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at AC Horsens (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Brøndby IF | Lyngby |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.