Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 6 · 16:00 · Brøndby IF vs Randers FC
Likeliest: Brøndby IF win · 68%
A 68% home win. The market says 61%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brøndby IF68%61%+7
OursMarket
Draw18%21%−3
OursMarket
Randers FC14%17%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 39% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 78% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brøndby IF
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 30 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)1-3
- Aug 24 · v Silkeborg IF (H)3-1
- Aug 17 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-2
- Aug 9 · at AC Horsens (A)2-0
- Aug 2 · v Viborg FF (H)1-0
Randers FC
LossWinLossLossWin
- Aug 30 · v AGF (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at FC Midtjylland (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v FC København (H)0-4
- Aug 9 · v Lyngby (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Brøndby IF | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.