3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Brodd vs Hinna
Likeliest: Brodd win · 46%
A 27% away win. The market says 15%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brodd46%67%−21
OursMarket
Draw27%18%+9
OursMarket
Hinna27%15%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 85% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 33% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 82% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 81% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brodd
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 4 · at Madla (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Vindbjart (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Våg FK (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Staal Jørpeland (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Varhaug (A)0-3
Hinna
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 2 · v Staal Jørpeland (H)2-4
- Sep 28 · at Haugesund II (A)4-2
- Sep 19 · v Åkra (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Madla (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Vindbjart (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Brodd | Hinna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.