USL Championship (USA) · Wed, Oct 21 · 22:30 · Brooklyn FC vs Birmingham Legion FC
Likeliest: Birmingham Legion FC win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brooklyn FC32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Birmingham Legion FC42%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brooklyn FC
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Hartford Athletic (A)3-2
- Oct 3 · v Rhode Island FC (H)1-3
- Sep 30 · v Detroit City FC (H)1-3
- Sep 23 · at Birmingham Legion FC (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · v FC Tulsa (H)2-2
Birmingham Legion FC
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v Loudoun United FC (H)0-0
- Oct 14 · at SC Jacksonville (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at SC Jacksonville (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Brooklyn FC (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Brooklyn FC | Birmingham Legion FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.