3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Bærum SK vs Ullern
Likeliest: Bærum SK win · 42%
A 28% draw. The market says 21%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bærum SK42%55%−13
OursMarket
Draw28%21%+7
OursMarket
Ullern30%24%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 77% | −26 |
| Both teams score | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 76% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 45% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 69% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bærum SK
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Asker (A)2-4
- Oct 4 · v Ready (H)1-2
- Oct 1 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)1-5
- Sep 26 · at Vålerenga IF II (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v FK Union Carl Berner (H)1-2
Ullern
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Grei (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at KFUM Oslo II (A)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Heming (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Vålerenga IF II (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Ready (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Bærum SK | Ullern |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-3 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.