1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Bryne FK vs Egersund
Likeliest: Bryne FK win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bryne FK54%52%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Egersund23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bryne FK
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Ranheim IL (A)2-4
- Oct 14 · v Raufoss (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Odds BK (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Lyn FK (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Åsane (A)4-0
Egersund
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · v Sogndal IL (H)3-3
- Oct 14 · at Moss FK (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Hødd IL (H)3-1
- Oct 2 · at Ranheim IL (A)0-5
- Sep 20 · at Odds BK (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Bryne FK | Egersund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.