1. Division (Norway) · Wed, Oct 14 · 17:00 · Bryne FK vs Raufoss
Likeliest: Bryne FK win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bryne FK66%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−1
OursMarket
Raufoss15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bryne FK
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Odds BK (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Lyn FK (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Åsane (A)4-0
- Sep 16 · at IL Bjarg (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Stabæk Fotball (H)2-0
Raufoss
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Moss FK (H)1-2
- Oct 6 · v IK Start (H)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Strømsgodset (H)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Elverum (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Odds BK (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Bryne FK | Raufoss |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-2 | 2-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.