K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 19 · 07:30 · Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Likeliest: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bucheon FC 199527%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Gimcheon Sangmu FC43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bucheon FC 1995
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · v Jeju SK (H)2-2
- Sep 8 · at Incheon United (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)0-5
- Aug 29 · v FC Anyang (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · at FC Seoul (A)0-1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v Gangwon FC (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · at Pohang Steelers (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Gwangju FC (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-3
- Aug 25 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bucheon FC 1995 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-7-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | 1-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.