K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 · Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC
Likeliest: Bucheon FC 1995 win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bucheon FC 199543%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Gwangju FC29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bucheon FC 1995
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-2
- Oct 9 · at Gangwon FC (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Jeju SK (H)2-2
- Sep 8 · at Incheon United (A)1-2
Gwangju FC
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-3
- Oct 11 · v Ulsan HD (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v FC Anyang (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bucheon FC 1995 | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-4 | 0-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.