NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:30 · Budapest Honvéd FC vs Debreceni VSC
Likeliest: Budapest Honvéd FC win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Budapest Honvéd FC38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Debreceni VSC37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Budapest Honvéd FC
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Újpest (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Puskás Akadémia (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Bajai LC (A)7-0
- Sep 6 · at ETO FC Győr (A)2-3
Debreceni VSC
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Zalaegerszegi TE (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · at Ferencváros TC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Vasas (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · at Gödöllői SK (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Paksi FC (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Budapest Honvéd FC | Debreceni VSC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.