Premier League (Ukraine) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Bukovyna Chernivtsi vs Polissya Zhytomyr
Likeliest: Polissya Zhytomyr win · 64%
Likely score: 0–2
A tight one: we make it 64% for the away win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bukovyna Chernivtsi12%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Polissya Zhytomyr64%61%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 16% | 21% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bukovyna Chernivtsi
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Metalist 1925 (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (A)0-0
- Aug 31 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)3-0
- Aug 15 · at Karpaty Lviv (A)0-3
Polissya Zhytomyr
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 18 · v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Kudrivka (H)5-1
- Aug 29 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)2-0
- Aug 17 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | Polissya Zhytomyr |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.