La Liga 2 (Spain) · Mon, Oct 12 · 14:15 · Burgos Club de Fútbol vs Granada
Likeliest: Burgos Club de Fútbol win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burgos Club de Fútbol36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Granada33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burgos Club de Fútbol
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Almería (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · v CD Eldense (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Las Palmas (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v AD Ceuta (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
Granada
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 4 · at Real Sociedad B (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v FC Andorra (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Leganés (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Albacete Balompié (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Eibar (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Burgos Club de Fútbol | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.