La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Apr 25 · 16:30 · Burgos vs Deportivo La Coruña
Likeliest: Burgos win · 48%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burgos48%37%+11
OursMarket
Draw26%34%−8
OursMarket
Deportivo La Coruña26%29%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 36% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 45% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 63% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 66% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 56% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burgos
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Apr 18 · at Castellón (A)1-3
- Apr 11 · v Sporting Gijón (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Albacete (A)3-2
- Apr 1 · v Ceuta (H)1-1
- Mar 28 · at Real Valladolid (A)1-0
Deportivo La Coruña
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Apr 20 · v Mirandés (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at Huesca (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Málaga (H)1-1
- Mar 31 · v Córdoba (H)2-0
- Mar 28 · at Sporting Gijón (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.