AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Oct 13 · 12:15 · Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
Likeliest: Buriram United win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Buriram United49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Beijing Guoan25%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Buriram United
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Rayong FC (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Chonburi FC (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Johor Darul Ta'zim (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Chiangrai United (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Sukhothai (A)3-1
Beijing Guoan
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)3-0
- Sep 15 · v Pohang Steelers (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Shanghai Port (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Buriram United | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-1 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.