Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Fri, Sep 25 · 19:00 · Burkina Faso vs Benin
Likeliest: Burkina Faso win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burkina Faso62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Benin15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burkina Faso
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Jun 9 · at Belarus (A)2-2
- Jun 5 · at Russia (A)0-3
- Mar 31 · v Guinea-Bissau (H)1-1
- Mar 28 · v Guinea-Bissau (H)5-0
- Nov 18 · v Benin (H)3-0
Benin
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Jun 9 · at Togo (A)1-5
- Jun 5 · v Niger (H)1-1
- Mar 31 · at Guinea (A)1-0
- Mar 27 · v Liberia (H)1-0
- Nov 18 · at Burkina Faso (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Burkina Faso | Benin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.