Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 1 · 15:00 · Burnley vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Burnley win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Burnley37%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
Arsenal36%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 26 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)3-2
- Oct 18 · v Leeds United (H)2-0
- Oct 5 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Manchester City (A)1-5
- Sep 23 · v Cardiff City (H)1-2
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 29 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-0
- Oct 26 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Atlético Madrid (H)4-0
- Oct 18 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v West Ham United (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Burnley | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.