Premier League (England) · Sun, May 10 · 13:00 · Burnley vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 48%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley27%18%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+1
OursMarket
Aston Villa48%59%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 53% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 41% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 82% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 24% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 1 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
- Apr 22 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Apr 19 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-4
- Apr 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Mar 21 · at Fulham (A)1-3
Aston Villa
WinLossLossLossWin
- May 7 · v Nottingham Forest (H)4-0
- May 3 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-2
- Apr 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Sunderland (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | Burnley | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.