Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Burnley vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Burnley win · 42%
A 34% away win. The market says 23%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley42%51%−10
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Bristol City34%23%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 77% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 69% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Norwich City (A)1-4
- Aug 26 · at Bradford City (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
Bristol City
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 1 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Portsmouth (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Aug 6 · v Walsall (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Burnley | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-7-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-7-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.