Championship (England) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:45 · Burnley vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Burnley win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Watford (A)4-0
- Sep 19 · v Derby County (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Swansea City (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
Charlton Athletic
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Cardiff City (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Portsmouth (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Stoke City (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Burnley | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-7-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.