Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Burnley vs Derby County
Likeliest: Burnley win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Burnley53%52%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Derby County21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Burnley
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at Swansea City (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Sep 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Norwich City (A)1-4
Derby County
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
- Sep 1 · at Portsmouth (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Swansea City (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Burnley | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-7-3 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.